The European Commission predicts slowdown in the economic growth of our country. Projections for 2016. were only 1.5% growth, which will be driven mainly by exports and cheap oil. In 2017. It is expected to reach 2% due to increased domestic demand. In 2015. Well, the growth of the Bulgarian economy reached 2.2% - 0.5% more than the then European Commission forecasts.
According winter deflation forecast for 2015 with a value of 1.1%, and in 2016 will be 0.1 percent. Next year there will be a return to inflation of 0.9%.
The budget deficit last year (2.5% of GDP) has entered into a 3-percentage framework of the Stability and Growth and will continue to shrink - 2.3% of GDP in 2016 and 2% of GDP in 2017 year. Government debt will continue to increase - from 28.2 percent of GDP last year to 29.7 percent of GDP this year and to 30.7% of GDP in coming. This ratio remains one of the lowest in the EU.
Unemployment last year was 10.1% compared to 11.4% in 2014 and is expected to continue to slowly decline - to 9.4% in 2016 and 8.8% in 2017.
2017 domestic consumption will rise and will gradually replace exports as the main economic engine, considered by the European Commission. At the same time, "unsupported" business environment will impede private investment. The public will again be reduced by the closure of European projects.
The weakening of the euro, to which the Bulgarian lev is fixed and the fact that a significant part of Bulgaria's exports for countries outside the euro area, determine its growth. For 2015 Bulgaria has a current account surplus equal to 2.1 percent of GDP. Anticipation is to shrink to 1.5% of GDP in 2017 to an expected increase in domestic demand.
According to forecasts of the Ministry of Finance Bulgaria's economic growth in 2016 will be 2.1%. Prime Minister Boyko Borisov did several times said he expected 4.5% increase.